We have said it before but it is so worth repeating….Be Aware and Prepare. A major disaster could be just around the corner and preparation could save you and your loved ones.
Scientists have developed a new earthquake forecast model for California, the third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, or “UCERF3″. It provides the latest estimates of the magnitude, location, and likelihood of earthquake fault rupture throughout the state. Compared to the previous forecast (UCERF2), the likelihood of moderate-sized earthquakes (magnitude 6.5 to 7.5) is lower, while that of larger events is higher. The new model for the first time reflects the inclusion of multifault simultaneous ruptures. The study “serves as a reminder that damaging earthquakes are inevitable for California Fortunately, there are many simple steps residents can take to protect lives and property.”
There are two kinds of scientific models (1) an earthquake rupture forecast predicts where and when the Earth might slip along the state’s many faults, and (2) a ground motion prediction model estimates the ensuing shaking from a fault rupture.
UCERF3 is the most recent earthquake rupture forecast for our area . Its predictions for the San Francisco region are:
• The Northern San Andreas Fault has a lower likelihood of hosting an earthquake (compared to the Southern San Andreas) partly because of the relatively recent 1906 earthquake on that fault.
• The Hayward-Rodgers Creek and Calaveras Faults are more likely to rupture (compared to the Northern San Andreas) because it has been a long time since the last earthquakes occurred on these faults.
• Compared to UCERF2, the Calaveras Fault shows a three-fold increase in M?6.7 earthquake likelihoods, but no compensating decrease in rate at higher magnitudes. This is because most events on the Calaveras in UCERF2 were well below magnitude 6.7, so the inclusion of multi-fault ruptures in UCERF3 increases the likelihood of all M?6.7 earthquakes.
The USGS (Menlo Park) developed a three-dimensional (3D) geologic and seismic model of the greater San Francisco Bay Area for the purposes of computing earthquake ground motions.
We found a really good risk map from 2015 on popular mechanics.
The article taken from the Chronicle summarizes the predictions as: In the Bay Area, the evidence shows that a quake with a magnitude of about 6 — the size of August’s Napa quake — is virtually certain to strike within the next 30 years, while the probability that an even larger one with a magnitude of roughly 6.7 is extremely high, or 72 percent, according to the report. The probability of a magnitude 8 or larger quake in California, the experts said, has increased from 4.7 percent estimated in 2008 to 7 percent now.
Cows need to take the prediction seriously and should consider joining in with the millions of people worldwide who will practice how to Drop, Cover, and Hold On at 10:19 a.m. on October 19, 2017 during Great Shake Out Earthquake Drills.
See the video on what the Shakeout is and get some additional tips at